Restrictions Start to Bite


 

 

“October data showed a clear change in price trends as the new restrictions announced over the national holidays resulted in significant reductions in transaction volumes. Stricter background checks on home buyer mortgage applications, tighter credit controls and the overall negative buying sentiment caused by the policy chance may have all had an impact,” said James Macdonald, Head of China Research.

Overview 

In October, 62 of the 70 cities recorded month-on-month (MoM) increases in first-hand commodity residential prices, compared to 63 cities in September. Of the remaining eight cities, one saw no change, while seven recorded price decreases. 

The five cities with the largest increases were: Wuxi (4.9%), Changsha (4.5%), Zhengzhou (3.5%), Jinan (3.4%) and Hangzhou (3.2%)

The five cities with the largest decreases were Chengdu (-0.8%), Mudanjiang (-0.5%), Shenzhen (-0.5%), Urumqi (-0.4%), and Nanchong (-0.4%)

On average, prices in the 70 cities increased by 1.07% in October, the eighteenth consecutive MoM increase for the 70 city index, but down from 1.80% in September. Average prices are currently up 10.43% year-on-year (YoY), and up 21.20% compared to December 2010 when the index was first established.

 

First Tier City Analysis

First-tier cities, in a rapid reversal of fortunes, recorded the slowest pace of price growth of any city tier, with growth rates collapsing to 0.47% in October, down from 3.28% the previous month.

Once the laggard among first tier cities, Guangzhou claimed the mantle of the fastest growing first tier city from Shanghai and Shenzhen as growth rates in those two cities cooled and, in the case of Shenzhen, reversed. Shenzhen recorded its first monthly decline in pricing in nearly two years, falling 0.5% in October.

Table 1: First-tier city first-hand commodity residential price movement

City Sep-16 (MoM) Oct-16 (MoM) Acceleration Oct-16 (YoY) Oct-16 vs Dec-10
Beijing 4.9% 0.6% -430 bps 30.2% 74.01%
Shanghai 3.2% 0.5% -270 bps 37.4% 85.76%
Guangzhou 3.1% 1.3% -180 bps 23.8% 63.05%
Shenzhen 1.9% (0.5%) -240 bps 32.1% 127.83%
Average 3.28% 0.47% -280 bps 30.88% 87.66%

(National Bureau of Statictics; Savills Research)

 

First tier cities continue to have some of the lowest levels of unsold inventory, the most vibrant economies and job markets, as well as some of the strongest housing demand. Despite this, increasing unaffordability as well as stricter lending criteria and purchasing restrictions have tempered growth for the short term, allowing these markets to consolidate recent home price increases.

 

City tier analysis

All city tiers recorded price growth in October for the third consecutive month. Second tier cities recorded the strongest price growth for the second consecutive month, increasing by 1.91%, though down from 3.41% in the previous month. All city tiers also recorded slowdowns in the pace of price growth in October with the largest slowdowns seen in bigger cities. First tier cities saw price growth slow by 2.8 percentage points (ppts) while second tier city price growth slowed by 1.51 ppts.

 

Table 2: First-hand commodity residential price movement by tier city

Tier city Sep-16 (MoM) Oct-16 (MoM) Acceleration Oct-16 (YoY) Oct-16 vs Dec-10
1 3.28% 0.47% -280 bps 30.88% 87.66%
2 3.41% 1.91% -151 bps 20.05% 33.06%
3 1.51% 1.00% -52 bps 8.60% 16.30%
4 1.20% 0.95% -25 bps 4.99% 11.26%
5 0.62% 0.48% -14 bps 1.72% 6.31%
All 1.80% 1.07% -74 bps 10.43% 21.20%

(National Bureau of Statictics; Savills Research)

 

First- and second-tier cities

 

The four best performing second-tier cities in October were Wuxi (4.9%), Changsha (4.5%), Zhengzhou (3.5%), and Hangzhou (3.2%).

 

While most second tier cities, and indeed most cities, recorded a slowdown in price growth, there were a number that saw a pick up in price growth from September, primarily those in the north east and west, namely Xi’an (1.5 ppts), Dalian (0.5 ppts), Shenyang (0.2 ppts), Changsha (0.1 ppts).

 

Regional analysis

All regions recorded growth in October, while only the north west and north east recorded an acceleration in price growth. Growth in east China slowed from 2.85% to 1.67%, down 1.17 ppts MoM.

 

The north east and north west regions, while still recording some of the slowest growth rates, did record some improvement MoM, notably Xi’an (1.5 ppts), Dalian (0.5 ppts), Harbin (0.4 ppts), Dandong (0.4 ppts), Jinzhou (0.4 ppts), Shenyang (0.2 ppts), Changchun (0.2 ppts), Xining (0.1 ppts), Jilin (0.1 ppts).

 

Table 3: First-hand commodity residential price movement by region

  Sep-16 (MoM) Oct-16 (MoM) Acceleration Oct-16 (YoY) Oct-16 vs Dec-10
South 1.91% 1.02% -89 bps 11.48% 28.53%
North West 0.22% 0.38% 16 bps 2.14% 14.50%
North 1.88% 0.90% -98 bps 10.54% 23.88%
Central 2.40% 1.63% -77 bps 9.83% 22.33%
North East 0.17% 0.32% 15 bps 0.38% 8.28%
East 2.85% 1.67% -117 bps 18.31% 26.92%
South West 0.67% 0.16% -51 bps 3.20% 9.51%

(National Bureau of Statictics; Savills Research)

 

Outlook

The market has been turned on its head by the new policies. Many local governments are waiting to analyse the impact these measures have on markets before tweaking their own rules to insure stable pricing, in order to keep transaction volume levels healthy and on pace with future supply levels. Many developers are unlikely to respond immediately to the measures and any market fluctuations, with most expected to reach or exceed sales targets. Nevertheless, these developers will be looking at 2017 and wondering what new strategies they will need to develop to overcome market challenges or adjust targets to more manageable levels.

 

While it is important that individual cities have the ability to introduce policies to affect supply and demand levels as well as price growth, the increasingly convoluted and varied nature of these measures are making it harder to understand and navigate China’s property market, for investors, developers and home owners alike. At some point in the not too distant future, there needs to be a comprehensive review of the different land management and price cooling measures that have been tried and tested in individual locations, with the best and most effective measures actively promoted by a central authority to city governments as a toolkit for local policy makers and administrators. There should also be, if there is not already, a central resource that tracks and reports on policy changes with regards to the property and land markets, not just at the national levels but at the provincial, city and district level. Increased transparency and consistency is needed in this market that remains such an important pillar to the economic health of the nation.

 

Bibliography

National Bureau of Statictics. [Online] http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/.

Savills Research. [Online] http://en.savills.com.cn/.

国家统计局. [Online]

第一太平戴维斯市场研究部.

 

 

Glossary

MoM:    Month-on-Month

YoY:      Year-on-Year

YTD:     Year-to-date

(Chinese Version)

调控新政效果显露
“10月份,国内房价上涨势头得到抑制,国庆前后各地出台的调控新政效果显现,楼市成交量环比显著下降。此外,银行加强对贷款买家的背景审核、谨慎放贷,以及市场因政策风向的改变而产生消极心理,这些都对近期的楼市表现起到一定影响。”简可,第一太平戴维斯中国区市场研究部主管

概述
10月份,全国70个大中城市中,62个城市的新建商品住宅销售价格录得环比上涨,较9月份的63个有所减少。1个城市的价格指数较上月基本持平,7个城市则环比下跌。

其中,住宅销售价格涨幅最大的五个城市依次为:无锡(4.9%)、长沙(4.5%)、郑州(3.5%)、济南(3.4%)和杭州(3.2%)。

而价格环比下跌最为明显的五个城市依次为:成都(-0.8%)、牡丹江(-0.5%)、深圳(-0.5%)、乌鲁木齐(-0.4%)和南通(-0.4%)。

10月份,70个大中城市新建商品住宅平均销售价格环比上涨1.07%,为连续第18个月上涨,较今年9月份1.8%的环比涨幅有所放缓。平均销售价格较去年同期上涨10.43%,自最早指数基准时期(2010年12月)累计上涨21.2%。

图1:70个大中城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比变动情况

(国家统计局; 第一太平戴维斯市场研究部)

图2:70个大中城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比变动情况(按城市等级划分)

(国家统计局; 第一太平戴维斯市场研究部)
一线城市市场表现
10月份,一线城市住宅销售价格表现扭转以往之领跑局面,涨幅自今年9月的3.28%显著收窄至0.47%,涨幅不及其他各线城市。

作为一线城市中房价表现一直相对滞后的城市,此次广州房价涨幅赶超上海和深圳,领跑一线城市。深圳则止涨回跌,跌幅达0.5%,为两年以来首次下跌。

表 1: 一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比变动情况
城市 16年9月 (环比) 16年10月 (环比) 增速变动 16年10月 (同比) 16年10月比10年12月
北京 4.9% 0.6% -430个百分点 30.2% 74.01%
上海 3.2% 0.5% -270个百分点 37.4% 85.76%
广州 3.1% 1.3% -180个百分点 23.8% 63.05%
深圳 1.9% (0.5%) -240个百分点 32.1% 127.83%
平均 3.28% 0.47% -280个百分点 30.88% 87.66%
(国家统计局; 第一太平戴维斯市场研究部)

图3:一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比变动情况

(国家统计局; 第一太平戴维斯市场研究部)

由于经济活力、拥有大量就业机会和持续的置业需求,一线城市的待售库存接近历史最低水平。但同时,持续上涨的房价和限购限贷从严已使短期市场增长势头得到抑制。

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各等级城市市场表现
10月份,各等级城市房价均再次实现环比上涨。继9月份涨幅领跑各线城市,二线城市于10月份二度抢镜,环比上涨1.91%,但涨幅较9月份的3.41%有所收窄。类似地,其他各线城市房价涨幅也均有放缓,且大城市减速更为显著。一、二线城市涨幅分别放缓2.8个百分点和1.51个百分点。

表 2:新建商品住宅销售价格环比变动情况(按城市等级划分)
城市等级 16年9月 (环比) 16年10月 (环比) 增速变动 16年10月 (同比) 16年10月比10年12月
一线 3.28% 0.47% -280个百分点 30.88% 87.66%
二线 3.41% 1.91% -151个百分点 20.05% 33.06%
三线 1.51% 1.00% -52个百分点 8.60% 16.30%
四线 1.20% 0.95% -25个百分点 4.99% 11.26%
五线 0.62% 0.48% -14个百分点 1.72% 6.31%
所有城市 1.80% 1.07% -74个百分点 10.43% 21.20%
(国家统计局; 第一太平戴维斯市场研究部)

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一、二线城市市场表现
图4:一、二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格指数

(国家统计局; 第一太平戴维斯市场研究部)

10月份,二线城市中表现最优的四个城市依次为:无锡(4.9%)、长沙(4.5%)、郑州(3.5%)和杭州(3.2%)。

尽管本月多数城市房价增速均有放缓,仍有一些城市房价依然加速上涨,尤其是东北和西北地区,如:西安(1.5个百分点)、大连(0.5个百分点)、沈阳(0.2个百分点)和长沙(0.1个百分点)。

图5:重点二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比变动情况

(国家统计局; 第一太平戴维斯市场研究部)
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区域市场表现
10月,所有地区房价指数均录得环比上涨,然而仅东北和西北地区的增速加快。华东地区环比涨幅自9月份的2.85%放缓至1.67%,环比下跌1.17个百分点。

尽管一些东北和西北地区城市的房价增速不尽如人意,但依然有一些城市录得可观表现,代表城市有:西安(1.5个百分点)、大连(0.5个百分点)、哈尔滨(0.4个百分点)、丹东(0.4个百分点)、锦州(0.4个百分点)、沈阳(0.2个百分点)、长春(0.2个百分点)、西宁(0.1个百分点)和吉林(0.1个百分点)。

表 3:新建商品住宅销售价格指数(按地区划分)
16年9月 (环比) 16年10月 (环比) 增速变动 16年10月 (同比) 16年10月比10年12月
华南地区 1.91% 1.02% -89个百分点 11.48% 28.53%
西北地区 0.22% 0.38% 16个百分点 2.14% 14.50%
华北地区 1.88% 0.90% -98个百分点 10.54% 23.88%
华中地区 2.40% 1.63% -77个百分点 9.83% 22.33%
东北地区 0.17% 0.32% 15个百分点 0.38% 8.28%
华东地区 2.85% 1.67% -117个百分点 18.31% 26.92%
西南地区 0.67% 0.16% -51个百分点 3.20% 9.51%
(国家统计局; 第一太平戴维斯市场研究部)

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展望
随着近期调控政策的相继落地,楼市步伐开始放缓,政策消化需要时间,政府亦将静观新政效果,以期使楼市平稳,实现供求平衡。而开发商对调控政策和楼市节奏放缓的反应也相对有限,取而代之的是放眼来年、调整战略,迎接全新挑战,或根据预期适当调整来年销售目标。

尽管各地政府应当有能力通过供需侧调控当地楼市,但各地推出的楼市调控举措日益纷繁复杂,无论对于投资者、开发商还是买家而言,认识并参与国内房地产市场的难度正与日俱增。假以时日,应将各地调控试行举措(包括对土地市场管理和房价调控)进行归总回顾和分析,并择优向地方推广。此外,应从全国、省、市及区县等各层面对楼市及土地政策进行系统性记录汇总。房地产市场作为中国经济的重要支柱之一,亟需提高楼市透明度、保持调控步调一致。

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参考资料
国家统计局.
第一太平戴维斯市场研究部.